Why Nawaz could not win the elections despite the blessings of the army?

The three-time prime minister's party has faced off in the election field. Candidates supported by imprisoned leader Imran Khan have come to the top. Now former Prime Minister Nawaz is facing a difficult situation while forming the government.

After nearly two years of political instability, the much-awaited general elections were held in Pakistan last Thursday (February 8). The polling ended amid violence and various irregularities and complaints.

Then it was time to publish the results. But in this case too, the tussle started. Finally, 12 hours after the end of polling, the private results began to be published. But very slowly.

The PTI-backed independent candidates of jailed leader Imran Khan are leading by a wide margin, according to the results on Friday (February 9). Far behind is the Pakistan Muslim League (PML-N). But the leader of the party, Nawaz Sharif, was preparing to give a 'victory speech' even from behind.

Later that night, he appeared with his family on the balcony of the party headquarters in Lahore. Fireworks lit up on his arrival. The night sky lit up. On that occasion he was welcomed by about one and a half thousand 'loyal' supporters. Those who had already gathered in front of the party office.

Nawaz started giving 'victory speeches' to his supporters. He said what he said in almost every public meeting. Addressing the small gathering, he left his old words. He said, do you love me? We love you, came the unanimous response from the small gathering.

The question may be, does the general public of Pakistan love Nawaz except for a few loyal activist-supporters who benefit? The answer to this question will be clear if we take a look at the situation of Pakistan's February 8 election and the situation in the following few days.

There are few evidences that Nawaz is loved by the general public as much as his loyal cadres is abundant. More than 12 crore registered voters out of about 25 crore people showed how much they hate Nawaz on the election day itself on February 8. Which has really rubbed the face of the political analyst.

The election is still a few weeks away. Political analysts said on the talk show, PML-NE is going to win this time. 74-year-old Nawaz will rule Pakistan once more. Of course, they had a reason for such gossip. And that is the blessing of Pakistan's powerful army.

Nawaz was sentenced to 10 years in prison on corruption charges stemming from the Panama Papers scandal. He was then banned from politics and public office for 'lifetime'. With that sentence in mind, he went to London for treatment with the permission of Imran Khan government. He went and never came back. Remain in voluntary exile.

After almost four years, Nawaz returned to the country at the end of last year ahead of the elections. All the cases against him were soon acquitted. The 'for life' ban on him from politics was also lifted. Through this, the way for him to participate in the elections and become the Prime Minister is cleared.

On the other hand, since the fall of the PTI-led Imran Khan government in 2022, dozens of cases have been filed against him. Finally, he was jailed in a corruption case before the election. Not only that, PTI's party registration was canceled and it was barred from participating in the elections. The election symbol cricket bat was also taken away. PTI leaders have always blamed the army for all this.

All in all, it is popular opinion that Nawaz Sharif and his party PML-N generals have 'favoured' Pakistan National Election 2024. And that's why 'Big Mia' and his team became very confident about their victory. And the confidence was so high that the party even fixed the timing of their leader's 'victory speech' on the night of the polling day (February 8) i.e. a few hours after the end of polling.

But then when the results started coming in, Nawaz, his family and the team's enthusiasm went down like camphor. As political analyst and election expert Majid Nizami says. He said, 'When the poll results started coming out, the PML-N was shocked. That is why they started thinking again about the 'Victory Speech' and remained completely silent for almost 12 hours.

The 'victory speech', which was supposed to be delivered within hours of the end of the polls, was finally delivered almost 24 hours later.

On Friday (February 9) night, Nawaz came to the balcony of the party headquarters to give a 'victory speech' to his family. Vijay also claimed. But admitted that his party had failed to secure a majority. And so coalition will be needed to form the government.

Majid Nizami said, PML-N never expected such a result. They thought they would get more than 85 percent seats in the National Assembly from Punjab. But preliminary results showed that they got only 50 percent of the seats.

Punjab is the base of Sharif family and PMLN. Almost all the remaining seats in that base went to candidates backed by Imran Khan's Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). But in the run-up to the elections, the party's leaders and workers were so repressed that many experts thought the party was doomed.

Three days later, on Sunday (February 11) afternoon, when the election results came out, it was seen that Nawaz's party PML-N won only 75 seats out of 265 seats in the National Assembly. At least 25 less than the total number of seats secured by PTI-backed independent candidates. PTI alleged that the election results were rigged.

Party leaders say their candidates have won at least 170 seats. But they were deprived of the required majority (134 seats needed to form a government alone) through result rigging. The mandate (public support) given to PTI by Pakistani people has been 'stolen' by Nawaz and his party PML-N. The leaders and activists of the party have already taken to the streets against the result manipulation. A written complaint has also been filed with the Election Commission (ECP) and the court.

Why did PML-N fail?

Surely this is a very big and important question. What happened, despite the blessing of the powerful army, that the Pakistani people turned their backs? However, even in early 2022, PML-N was ahead of PTI in most opinion polls. Besides, the position of the party in Punjab was considered to be stronger than ever before.

Lahore-based political analyst Badar Alam says the PML-N's dismal results can be traced back to April 2022 and subsequent events. When Imran Khan and his PTI-led government were ousted by a no-confidence vote.

Alam said that Nawaz Sharif was in voluntary exile in London at that time. His party PML-N, Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and other like-minded parties formed a movement called Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) after the fall of Imran Khan. They are also successful. But when Nawaz's younger brother Shahbaz Sharif took over as prime minister, his focus shifted to exonerating the elder brother from all cases and punishments.

These cases have been haunting Sharif brothers for almost three decades. The elder brother Nawaz Sharif had the opportunity to rule the country twice in the 1990s. He has been accused of corruption ever since. He was ousted in 1999 by a military coup.

After about 14 years, he returned to power in 2013. But faced stiff resistance from Imran Khan's PTI. But the allegations of corruption did not leave behind him. In 2017, Pakistan's anti-corruption agency National Accountability Board (NAB) sentenced him to 10 years in prison for that corruption.

The PML-N lost to the PTI in the 2018 general elections. Imran Khan got the opportunity to become the Prime Minister for the first time. But he also had the support of the army to become the prime minister. But soon relations between Khan and the army soured and he was eventually ousted by Imran in April 2022.

It is believed that the army had a hand in the coalition government of PML-N and PPP that came to power after the fall of Khan. After that, Pakistan fell into a political, economic and security crisis, and with the passage of time, that crisis has increased and not decreased. Political analyst Salman Ghani said, Sharif brothers used to take all the decisions of the government due to PDM being the main party of the alliance.

The analyst said that the PML-N had suffered irreparable damage during the 16-month rule of the PDM alliance. It was under this government that Pakistan witnessed massive inflation. Which has breathed life into the common people. As a result the vote bank has narrowed.

According to Salman Ghani, 'PML-N is the party of development and economy; People support the party for socio-economic benefits and not for ideology. But during the 16-month rule, that perception of the people has been destroyed.

The condition of Pakistan's economy is now deplorable. Last year, the country reached the brink of debt default. Foreign exchange reserves have fallen to just under $4 billion and the rupee is depreciating rapidly against the US dollar. It was temporarily saved from default by a $3 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

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