Exactly Two years and a month after the Ukraine war, this week saw the first bloody terrorist attack in Russia. Last Friday (March 22), this terrible attack was carried out at Crocus City Hall, located in the Krasnogorsk area of the capital Moscow. The globally banned terrorist group Islamic State or IS has claimed responsibility for the attack.
Just a day before the Moscow attack (March 21), a suicide bombing occurred in Afghanistan's southern province of Kandahar. IS claimed responsibility after a few hours. Before this the country has experienced several deadly attacks recently.
The group also claimed responsibility for a major attack in Iran earlier this year. Through a series of terrible attacks IS has once again come into the discussion across the world.
But five years ago, the group was declared 'defeated' in Iraq and Syria. The question has arisen, after being 'defeated', how did this terrible terrorist group rise again? Who is fueling them? In the meantime, the search for answers to these questions has also started.
How did IS rise?
In 2014, IS made headlines in the international media by suddenly attacking Iraq. Then by January 2015, i.e. within a span of just seven months, the group took control of large areas of Syria and Iraq. The land they occupied was close to the size of the United Kingdom.
But this rise of the group did not actually happen all of a sudden. Al Qaeda in Iraq, abbreviated as AQI, was born in 2006 in the context of the anarchic situation caused by the US military invasion in Iraq.
According to the Council on Foreign Relations, a man named Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi emerged as the leader of AQI in 2010. Not much is known about him.
The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) was founded in April 2013 under the leadership of Baghdadi. Later its name was changed to IS. In Arabic and Persian it is called Daesh.
Analysts say that innovative tactics in terrorist activities make IS more popular than al-Qaeda among young people. As a result, many young people from the Arab region as well as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and European countries joined IS.
According to Peter Newman, a professor at King's College London, 80 percent of militants from Western countries join IS's Syrian branch. In March 2013, the group captured Raqqa, Syria. Raqqa is believed to be their main base. Declaring Raqqa as its capital, IS started 'Jihad' against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
In January 2014, IS captured the Iraqi city of Fallujah. Then in June, the capture of Mosul. Then in January 2015, in just seven months, 40 percent of Iraq and Syria were taken over by them.
That is roughly the size of the UK. The group declared a caliphate after taking control of an area of 88,000 square kilometers. At that time, about one crore people were under their rule.
The chaos in sectarian Iraq and the civil war in Syria are believed to be major reasons for IS's success. However, wherever they occupied, they left evidence of cruelty.
The fall of IS begins
In 2015, a terrible terrorist attack took place in Paris, the capital city of France. 129 people were killed in the attack. IS claimed responsibility for the incident. Immediately after that, with the approval of the United Nations Security Council, the coalition forces led by the United States began operations against IS in Iraq and Syria.
Russia and Iran also started operations. Iraqi and Syrian government forces also joined it. Thus, IS retreated in the face of military operations from several fronts, and by the end of 2017, the group had lost about 95 percent of the territory it had captured.
Then in March 2019, IS lost control of all cities in Iraq and Syria through the fall of Baghuz, a desert city of Syria. On March 23, US-led coalition forces announced the victory at Baghuz as well as declared the 'defeat' of IS.
However, analysts warned at the time that the fall of Baghuj does not mean the fall of IS in the region. Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma in the United States, said that sneak attacks by IS members hiding in Iraq and Syria continue. The destruction of IS as a terrorist organization is far from over.
This week marks the fifth anniversary of the 'defeat' of IS in Syria. On this occasion, a question and answer session was organized at the Washington Institute last Thursday (March 21). Participating in that question and answer session, US State Department official Ian McCurry said in one of his comments that the efforts continue to ensure that the resurgence of IS does not happen.
The resurgence of IS
The terrorist attack in Moscow came a day (March 22) after celebrating the fifth anniversary of the 'defeat' of IS. Attackers opened fire with machine guns at close range on unarmed people who had gathered to listen to music at the concert. At last count, 154 people were shot; Out of which 133 people died including three children. Hundreds were injured.
Russia has not seen such a terrible attack in the last two decades. Hours later IS-K, Afghanistan arm of IS, claimed responsibility for this attack. Those known as the Islamic State in Khorasan Province or ISKP. Also called IS-K for short.
According to analysts, ISKP and its supporters have been celebrating on their social media channels since the attack in Moscow. Experts say the Moscow attack is the latest evidence that IS has been able to regain its strength after major setbacks in Syria and Iraq.
Just two months before the Moscow attack, that is, in January of this year, a terrible attack took place in Iran's Kerman province. On the fourth anniversary of the martyrdom of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad, two suicide bombs were detonated near his grave. Hundreds of innocent citizens were killed and around 300 were injured. ISKP also claimed responsibility for that attack.
According to an Al Jazeera report, on the one hand, while IS was losing strength in Iraq and Syria due to US-led coalition military operations, ISKP or IS was taking root in Afghanistan.
In May 2020, there was an attack on a maternity hospital in Kabul. 24 people including women and children were killed in the attack. IS was blamed for the attack. Six months after this incident, IS attacked Kabul University. At least 22 students and teachers were killed.
A few days later, the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan after nearly two decades of fighting against US-led NATO forces. On August, 2021, as the Taliban took control of Kabul, ISKP launched a devastating bomb attack on Kabul Airport. At least 175 civilians were killed in the attack. 13 US soldiers also lost their lives.
ISKP's power in Afghanistan has grown significantly since the Taliban came to power, analysts said. Kabir Taneja, Fellow of the New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation and author of the book 'ISIS Peril' said, then IS attacks crossed the border of Afghanistan and made a way into Pakistan. The group bombed an election rally in the country last July, killing more than 50 innocent people.
Ambitious IS
The reality is that IS has not been 'defeated' at all. Rather, they have secretly increased their power and influence over the past few years. Analysts say that IS has become increasingly ambitious after a series of successful attacks recently. Not only has ISKP increased its influence, but the parent organization IS or ISIL has also increased in strength and capabilities, Taneja said.
In an interview with Al Jazeera, Taneza said, "ISIS has increased its operations in its core areas of operations, namely Syria and Iraq." According to this analyst, ISIL currently exists in a state of "suspension"; but it is still ideologically strong.
"In the case of ISKP or IS-K, attacks in countries like Russia, Afghanistan and Iran are important for the group to "remain relevant, build reputation and sustain strategic capabilities", said analysts.
What Russia is saying about the terror attack in Moscow
The whole country is in mourning after the terrible terrorist attack in the concert hall of the capital of Russia, Moscow. After the most brutal attack in the history of Russia, the situation has normalized but the panic has not ended.
Immediately after IS claimed responsibility for the attack, the US and Western leaders were quick to say that ISE carried out the attack.
Meanwhile, 11 people were arrested in connection with the attack. Russian security forces said they were detained at the Ukrainian border. It is reported that four of them were directly involved in the attack. Now they are being interrogated.
After preliminary investigation, Russia says that Ukraine is behind this attack, not IS. Kiev has denied Russia's allegations. Following the brutal attack, President Vladimir Putin announced that those involved would be punished in a state of the nation address on Saturday (March 23).
In the speech, he blamed Ukraine for the attack. said they were trying to escape and headed towards Ukraine. According to preliminary information, a 'window' was created for them from the Ukrainian side so that they could easily cross the border.
Margarita Simonyan, editor-in-chief of Russia's top three news outlets RT, Russia Today and Sputnik's regulatory body, Rossiya Segodnya, said the Crocus City Hall attack was not carried out by IS, but by Ukraine and the West. He said Ukraine and the West resorted to lies to convince everyone that the attack was carried out by IS.
Margarita Simonian asserts, the names and identities of the criminals have already been disclosed to the authorities. The terrorists disclosed all the information during the interrogation. It became immediately clear why the US media and its leaders were simultaneously claiming that the attack was carried out by IS.
According to Simonian, the terrorists were chosen to carry out the attack in a way that would help the West convince the international community that ISIS was behind the attack. Meanwhile, the Russian security forces say that the attack was carried out very carefully after long planning. Mass killings were the main objective of the terrorists.
Sophisticated weapons and ammunition were carefully procured before the attack. The information comes from the interrogation of those involved in the detention from Russia's Bryansk region near the border with Ukraine.
However, no information about the identity or nationality of the attackers has been released. The Russian government is now focused on finding out where the weapons came from and what was the source of funding for the attackers and who directed the attacks.
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